Its always tempting, at the beginning of a calendar year, to cast a glace over the last twelve months and see what another trip around the sun has brought us. When I read this article about global smartphone adoption, I definitely got something that has been on my 2012 forecast: We are on the way to having a few strong players in mobile OS race.
The jury is in after Monday’s news. RIM has taken a tumble and is unlikely to regain market share or its formerly decisive position of leadership in smartphones. The company’s recent misadventure with their Playbook tablet device cost nearly half a billion in write downs. Even more seriously, RIM’s smartphone market share is off by two thirds over the last year, with Android eating most of their lunch. At the same time, Nokia and Intel have abandoned efforts to create a Linux-based mobile OS. Don’t misunderstand. I don’t dislike Linux and have owned several BlackBerrys (which were great devices in their time). I find no personal pleasure in RIM’s misfortunes. However, the enterprise mobile space desperately needed a shakeout in mobile OSs.
Together, Android and Apple’s iOS have amassed sufficient share to exercise a beneficial kind of dominance. As software developers and device innovators organize around these two OSs, de facto standards can emerge. This coalescence creates a rational, sustainable tech market landscape. Having a couple of strong mobile OS players will keep innovation alive, hold prices in check, and let consumer demands drive device development. By the same token, having only a couple of strong mobile OS players concentrates software development talent and allows skilled labor pools to grow. This will provide enterprise much greater opportunity to attract in-house mobile app development professionals. And building in-house enterprise app development resources allow a line-of-business manager or IT group can put forth mobile initiatives that cover 70% or more of the US smartphone installed base and can be accurately scheduled and costed. This may be a watershed moment for enterprise mobility.